"Trump is a bully!" "Trump is an outsider" "Trump is an authoritarian!" "Trump can't be bought and sold!" "Trump is a racist!" "Trump is authentic!" "Trump is a con artist!" "Trump is Hitler!"
There is no shortage of blistering critiques and hopeful opinions of Donald Trump as a presidential
candidate. But what there is a shortage of is a diagnostic of Trump Dynamics - analyzing the way he operates so
that we can best understand why he has run his campaign the way he
has so far, and, more importantly, how we should interpret him so that we can best assess how Donald Trump could be as President
of the United States.
Many readers likely just squinted, squirmed or winced when reading "how Donald Trump could be as a
President..." for good
reason: Donald Trump doesn't fit too neatly into our mental model of what a
President says, does, or sounds like.
Yet, here we are in the Spring of 2016, and it now appears that
there is a real chance that Donald Trump could not only win the Republican
nomination, but also win the Presidential race. Even if he doesn't win either
race, his candidacy has not only made waves in mainstream political thinking,
but has exposed rifts within the Republican party and many
traditional voting blocks around the country.
For these reasons, it's worth deep-diving into what makes Donald
Trump tick, because even if he doesn't ultimately succeed in his bid to run the
country, he has already created a ready-made template for future candidates to
utilize.
Note to readers: Before we dive in, bear in mind that this article will neither condone nor assail Trump's character, character flaws, or unique character attributes. As stated above, this is a diagnostic, not a review. If you are looking for an opinion on Trump as a person or as a candidate that either challenges or reinforces your beliefs about him, there are plenty of hot takes you can feast upon on the interwebs.
This Trump Diagnostic will be broken out into three dimensions: Communications, Politics, and Values.
Trump Communications
Trump's primary communication style is
sales (or as Scott Adams puts it,
persuasion). Persuader, salesman... these are different
words for the same style and same purpose: The sole objective of all Trump
communications is to get you to see things the way he sees them. Once he has
done that, then you are drawn to him. He no longer needs to do any work. It's
hard work on the front-end, and very efficient on the back-end. Just like in
sales, the first contract is hard, and the renewals are far easier.
A
politician as salesman seems to make a lot of sense since politicians need to
campaign in order to get elected. However, it's actually not a common
communication type. Most politicians are
evangelists:
They hold a set of philosophical and/or political beliefs that guide their
reason for running for office. They then share their beliefs with people during
a campaign in an effort to convince voters that what they stand for is
what would work best for voters.
You
can boil this down to the following: Sales communications is predicated on
moving inventory and making the deal. Evangelism is about aligning beliefs
around problems and solutions.
The
advantages of sales communications over evangelist communications include:
- Evangelism can draw but also repel people;
whereas sales is a connection approach, not a selection approach.
- Sales messages don't scare people; evangelist
communications can scare those who don't believe in the message.
- Evangelism requires a constant stream of
convincing to keep the problem and solution frame in focus. Sales requires
up-front convincing, but once the connection is made, it's harder to
disengage.
Trump also employs other strategic communications devices that
serve him quite well as a candidate, including:
- An expressive face, which conveys to the viewer
that he's fully involved in what he's saying, and does not often say
things that other people think for him.
- A passionate style, which indicates that he firmly believes in what he is saying.
- A simple, clear and basic message that underpins
any complex thoughts. He may be a "very smart man" as he
claims he is, but he rarely lets his smarts allow him to delve into the
depths of complexity. This device serves him particularly well as a populist candidate, a style of candidacy where simplicity and clarity are valued over
complexity and nuance.
Yet, while
sales is his primary communication style, he tag-teams with another style when he feels threatened or under assault:
antagonism. This aspect of Trump's
communication style is often misdiagnosed as bullying, and reflects his preference
to convey power so that he can
win. He has learned that by appearing to be the
alpha dog, he can easily gain the upper hand in a confrontation or deal when he is
actively belittling and disarming his adversary.
It's important to delineate
antagonism from bullying, because behind each is a different purpose. Based on
people who know Trump, his primary rationale for antagonizing people is to
win, not because he has a deep-seated hatred
or disdain for people. In fact, he has demonstrated many times that an
"enemy" or "bad guy" can instantly become a "good
guy" and a "friend" based on the immediate circumstances
surrounding their relationship. If you're benefiting Trump, then you're a
"good guy." If you are causing him problems, then you're a "bad
guy." It's entirely situational.
Trump Politics
A typical American political axis is on the
"Progressive/Liberal—Conservative/Libertarian" scale on any given
issue. Most successful American political figures amass most of their issues on
one side or the other on this axis in order to get the political party and
funding apparatus behind them.
If there is any one thing that most people seem to get wrong about Trump, it is
trying to pinpoint where he is on the Progressive — Conservative scale
because he doesn't operate on the this traditional political axis. Instead, his
positions traverse the "
Nationalist—
Fascist" political axis.
Nationalism
and Fascism are loaded words in our political language, and as a result they
seem
wrong, and for good
reason. However, these political philosophies can be quite attractive if not labeled as such.
For instance, Nationalism can be compelling if you
feel like your country is being infiltrated or weakened because nationalists
put "you" (the citizen) first. Who doesn't like coming first?
And, with America being culturally and racially a dominant neo-European
nation in its past, many will presume and infer that nationalist ideas will
also protect the eroding power of the existing ruling class. Similarly, Fascism
is typically seen as the "third way" between capitalism and
socialism, putting the profit motive at the heart of the philosophy (like
Capitalism) but also happily offers national support systems like welfare,
healthcare and other benefits that "you, the citizen" deserve since
you are #1!
This political orientation makes policies — building a wall (Nationalism), not reforming Social Security (Fascism), barring all Muslims (Nationalism), ensuring people "aren't dying in the streets" (Fascism) — to seem like a grab bag of progressive and conservative positions. But looking at it through the Nationalist/Fascist lens, it makes a lot more sense.
When Nationalism and Fascism get expressed through his
sales and
antagonistic communications styles, we start to see uncharacteristic behaviors for a national political figure in America. This mixture has led to the recent spate of
aggressive posturing and
violence-baiting that have started to alienate followers who had been focused on his unique story as a self-funded outsider, while further solidifying those who are looking for a more hard-core tone and approach as a way to blow up the political status quo in Washington.
Trump Values
Donald
Trump's values are so simple yet are still widely misunderstood. Trump's core
value is making a deal. Or, as he artfully puts it,
The Art of the
Deal. It
should be of no surprise that his seminal book reflects his core value.
Springing from this core value are supporting values, including
fairness,
strength & power, and
simplicity
& clarity, and, of
course,
winning.
A quick assessment of Trump's supporting values:
- Fairness is always in the eye of the beholder, and Trump
sees himself as a "fair dude" and readily weaponizes fairness in
order to hold others accountable to what he considers to be fair. He
believes that when he does deals, he's always "fair," and often
accuses people who try to one-up him to be "unfair." One salient
example of Trump's core value of fairness is his golden rule of being
"hit": he will not attack until he is attacked. But when he's
attacked, he goes for the jugular. He considers this to be
"fair" because he is just defending himself and also protecting
himself from future "hits."
- His strength
and power are often
misconstrued as outing him as an authoritarian. The thing is, he can't be
a real authoritarian because his core value is not to tell everyone what
to do. His core value is to make the
deal. As a result, what we're seeing looks like authoritarianism, but
what it really is is posturing in order to try to be in a stronger
negotiation position.
- His capacity for complexity may be limited, or he
may strategically employ simplicity
and clarity. Either way, the result is that when times are tough
(which is what many Americans feel, rightly or wrongly), leaders who value
clarity and simplicity tend to be the most attractive because they offer
the most expedient result.
- His penchant for winning has actually been a platform of his candidacy, which is obviously much more appealing to
voters who feel like America is losing its edge. Winning is not a typical
value, but it seems so fundamental to his core value of deal-making that
it needs to be identified as a supporting value.
Unlike most other politicians who actively lobby the voters and colleagues to believe in their prescriptions for shared success, Trump spends all of his time
in the moment and getting
the best deal possible based on the situation immediately at hand.
Navigating Trump
Based
on this diagnostic, some of the negative accusations made toward Donald Trump
align with his politics (nationalism/fascism), yet most do not align appear to
align with his values. This may help explain the divergence and dissonance in
feelings with regards to Trump. We are left wondering, at any given time, which
is more core to Trump: his politics, his communications, or his values.
Assuming that Trump's hierarchy of psyche follows the traditional pattern, then
we are left with his values informing his politics, and with his communication
style being in service to both.
With
this assumption, we will now be able to discern Trump's values rhetoric (which is
core and unmovable) from his political rhetoric (which is transient,
varies based on the situation -- and often exposes him to either making
things up or just downright lying).
This analysis provides us with a handy tool and guide for putting
Trump's statements into the proper context. Let's briefly explore how this works.
Positions that are
political,
and are therefore subject to change in order to make a deal:
- Ban Muslims until we "figure out what's
going on"
- Build a wall against the Mexican border
- De-fund Planned Parenthood (unless they stop
doing abortions)
- Tax cuts for corporations and tax increases for
hedge fund managers
- Repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act
- Address corporate inversions to bring companies
back to the U.S.
- Accept Supreme Court ruling on gay
marriage
- Cut the Dept. of Education, esp. with regards to
Common Core
- Cut funding to the EPA
- Deny entrance for Syrian refugees
- Remove gun control regulations
- No national minimum wage raise
Positions that are based on his core
values, and are therefore fundamental to
his candidacy and persona:
- Make Mexico pay for the wall
- Reduce trade deficits with China, Mexico and
Japan
- Politicians are stupid, and make bad deals
- Challenge the current "free trade"
ideology in Washington
This sample set of Trump
statements and policy proposals clearly demonstrates that the vast majority of
what Trump says are not based on his values, and therefore are to be taken with a
yuuuuge grain of salt. Yes,
many of us
already know this about Trump, but with this analysis, perhaps we may now know
precisely why, where and how he may change his tune. A President Trump would likely surprise people on both sides of the aisle when his deal-making ends up overriding most proposals he has
put forth to-date.
Importantly,
we can also discern from this diagnostic that most of the rhetoric that sounds like race-baiting,
authoritarianism, thuggery and bullying reflects his politics and communication
style; not his values. Meaning, most of the statements and positions that many detractors find troubling are nothing more than transient
tactics designed to fulfill his core objective - to make the deal. Does that
excuse the rhetoric and its affect on people? Nope. But it arguably could delineate Trump from truly dangerous and "
terrifying" world
leaders that his detractors compare him to.
Summary/TL;DR
If we can agree — based on 30+ years of history in the public eye and parsing his statements as a candidate carefully — that Trump's core value is
making a deal and everything else he does is in service to this, then it begins to make sense why so much of what he says is throw-away rhetoric with very little enduring value. In fact, this helps explain why Trump himself puts such little stock into being accurate in his own statements!
Only when we can effectively delineate Trump's values-driven statements and policies from his tactical, political rhetoric will we be able to identify the true Trump vs. the one that is so expertly dominating the media, the zeitgeist, and the national conversation.